Phoenix may reach its first 90-degree day of 2026 as February warm-up builds
Unseasonably warm pattern brings late-February heat close to early-season records
Phoenix is on track to record its first 90-degree day of 2026 before the end of February, a milestone that typically arrives much later in the spring. Forecasts show a steady climb from the low- and mid-80s early in the week to highs near 90°F by the end of the workweek, placing the metro area on the cusp of a notable early-season heat threshold.
The warm-up follows a change in the large-scale weather pattern over the Southwest. A ridge of high pressure is expected to dominate conditions, a setup that favors stronger sunshine, limited cloud cover, and suppressed precipitation. In practical terms, that combination raises afternoon temperatures while keeping rain chances low.
What the forecast suggests for the Phoenix metro area
Daily highs in the Valley are expected to rise through the week, with late-week readings reaching levels more commonly associated with April or May. Current projections indicate highs close to 90°F by Friday, with the potential for low-90s on Saturday depending on how efficiently the air mass warms.
- Early week: mid-80s with mild mornings
- Midweek: continued warm afternoons, limited cooling overnight
- Late week into the weekend: highs near 90°F, with a chance of 91–92°F if warming exceeds expectations
Small forecast changes—such as increased high clouds or slightly stronger afternoon breezes—can be the difference between an upper-80s day and a verified 90°F reading. Because the first 90-degree day is recorded from official observations, the exact timing depends on the day’s peak temperature at the primary climate site.
How unusual would a February 90 be?
Historically, Phoenix’s first 90°F day occurs around March 30 based on long-term climate averages. Reaching 90°F in February would place 2026 well ahead of the seasonal schedule and closer to the earliest occurrences on record. Phoenix has reached 90°F as early as mid-February in past years, underscoring that while rare, February 90s are within the city’s historical climate range.
In Phoenix, the first 90°F day typically arrives near the end of March, making any February occurrence an early-season outlier.
What comes next
Forecast confidence is highest in the overall warming trend and lower in the exact peak temperature on the hottest day. If highs stall at 88–89°F, Phoenix would remain just short of the 90-degree mark while still experiencing unusually warm late-February weather. If temperatures reach or exceed 90°F, it would mark an early start to the city’s warm-season milestones, with implications for outdoor safety planning and energy demand as the region moves toward spring.